The future of work is being rewritten as we speak as technologies such as generative AI and collaboration change the game in real-time.
DisrupTV Episode 321 brought together Paul Sheard, Author of The Power of Money and former Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Sue Watts, President at Sapience Analytics and Phil Simon, Author of The Nine: The Tectonic Forces Reshaping the Workplace.
Sheard got everyone thinking about the value of money and where fiscal policy and digital currency is headed. That backdrop provided a handy segue into the future of work. Here are 7 themes worth pondering from the episode.
Generative AI: Empowering or replacing workers? Maybe both. Simon acknowledged that there's a lot of uncertainty. "I'm not hearing a lot about generative AI empowerment, but you can go back and look at the arrival of the commercial Web, which destroyed jobs and created new ones," said Simon. "There is a lot of uncertainty that's justifiable."
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The pendulum has shifted back to employers, but not much. Simon said generative AI has swung the pendulum back to employees a bit more after two years of paying up due to labor shortages. But let's not get carried away. "Has the dynamic completely changed for employers. Absolutely not. I'd say the pendulum swung back a little bit, but if you look at the data employees feel empowered too," said Simon. "Labor union approval is up, and you have employees who will quit en masse if forced to go back to the office Monday through Friday. I detailed a few examples in my book."
Simon also noted that unemployment is low, the economy is adding jobs in the US and there still is a lack of workers so it's hard to say we have reverted to a pro-employer environment.
Employer, employee leverage varies by industry. Simon said historically blue-collar workers have taken the hit from automation, but now tech workers and white-collar workers are taking the hit.
Data and transparency into how work gets done will be critical--especially for contingent workforces. Watts' company Sapience Analytics is looking to help customers save and better track their contingent workforce.
In the contingent workforce environment, your company is bringing on resources that they source through other channels. Typically, these resources are billed on time. Timecards show up to be approved and then the supplier gets paid for the services rendered.
"What we've found at Sapience is companies don't know what's truly happening. If everyone agrees with the premise that the workplace is very complicated and it is hard to know what people are doing you know no one in the business has figured it out if you're entrusting part of your workforce to a supplier," explained Watts. "The supplier is telling you through a timecard what should be invoiced and paid. But that's a difficult place for companies. If I'm struggling to know what my people are doing imagine how hard it is with a contingent workforce. "
"What's the likelihood my supplier knows what its people are doing and what's the likelihood that invoice and timecard is going to be accurate?" asked Watts.
DisrupTV Episode 321, Paul Sheard, Sue Watts, Phil Simon - Hosted by Vala Afshar & R "Ray" Wang from Constellation Research on Vimeo.
Sapience collects metadata of what people are doing and then it is turned into structured data, so companies know what's exactly happening down the individual level. Sapience has found that 30% to 50% of the time billed hasn't actually been worked. "You're discovering not only overpayment but the reality you probably don't need as much headcount as before," said Watts.
Geographic freedom has had a big impact on work. With workers going remote, that labor market has dispersed. "With tools like Slack, Microsoft Teams, Zoom etc., remote work has become a lot more plausible. I don't have to relocate my family to take a new job," said Simon.
The hybrid work approach is being sorted out--in real time. Simon said that it is clear that employees have been as productive if not more so working at home so it's tough to say everyone should be back in the office. "But it's not unreasonable to want people back in the office," he said. "Work in the office needs to be more purposeful." For younger workers, it's also important to have in-person mentors and develop social capital.
One thing is certain: The right mix of hybrid work will be found. "There are massive benefits to hybrid including the ability to attract the best employees and retain them," said Simon. "I don't see how we're going back to the way it was before."
"Almost every other company is seeing that it is very difficult to know what's happening in the workplace,” said Watts. "There is a high percentage of the workforce that's still working from home. There's no company that has figured it out in terms of what is the right combination of work from home and work from office. How much flexibility should exist?"
Future work models will emerge. Simon noted there are massive financial advantages to being remote so there will be co-working arrangements as well as new ways to work. "If companies pooh pooh remote and hybrid and pretend that they don't matter, I'm betting your company won't be around in five years," said Simon.
"There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty for both the workers as well as the company," said Watts. "There's a need to know the data in regard to what's truly happening in the workplace in a way to create the transparency and clarity so both the employee and employer can exist in the new modern workplace."
What do you tell someone entering the workforce today? Given the rate of change in technologies such as generative AI, recent graduates entering the workforce should assume everything they've learned is going to change in two years. "People will have to get comfortable with ambiguity. With AI tools taking the world by storm it would be foolish to not know how to use them, but you will also need to roll up your sleeves," said Simon. For instance, a computer science major that can only use ChatGPT for coding will be exposed if she doesn't understand the core concepts and think critically.
"You'll need to lean into the uncertainty and steer into the skid," said Simon.
