Technology – The prime mega-trend that drives society

Every defined era of economic history is characterized by waves of disruption. From the agricultural revolution to the current information and digital revolution, innovation and change is results in continual disruption.

The drivers and outcomes of these eras of economic history have several common themes. The attached figure below highlights common themes that have accompanied each era of economic and social disruption from the Middle Ages. From the explosive growth of trade in resources that accompanied the Middle Ages, through to the shift toward urbanization in the Agricultural revolution; these factors are universal and drive development.

The information or digital revolution is no different. Demographic transition (urbanisation) in developing markets continues unabated. According to the United Nations, by 2025, over 900 million Chinese people will live in cities, and Indonesia’s urban population will exceed 50% of its total.[1] As the information and digital age has evolved, economic development has been a defining event for a number of economies. In the 8 years from 2004-2012 the Philippines GDP almost tripled, Australian GDP per capita increased 50% during the same period. [2]

Whilst the benefits and in particular, social and environmental costs of globalisation can, and should be, argued for months at end, it has created a globally integrated world with the ability for Thomas Friedman’s “Dell Theory of Conflict Resolution”[3] to have real applicability. (For a recent note on the value of an innovative supply chain please see “Innovation can come from history – HP uses the Silk Road to improve supply chain outcomes”) Organisations and consumers can get the benefits of scale and suppliers of various resources can have access to a range of markets globally.

Whilst organisations globally have historically benefited from the combination of all these Mega Trends, in terms of business benefits, Technology is pre-eminent. Technology drives a fundamental transformation in all spheres of society from consumers, through small business, Fortune 500 enterprises and all levels of government. The scale of technology impact is virtually impossible to measure. It ranges from micro-lending in emerging markets, and mobile banking platforms in rural Indian villages to optimised oil and gas exploration, and the ability to have instantaneous global news feeds.